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Fall Semester
2004 |
Section 10 code 50034 Lectures Tuesday 2:00-4:45PM BBC 021
Professor Miriam
Donoho donoho@email.sjsu.edu
Office: BT 765 Phone: 924-1346
Office Hours: T
NoonÐ1:30PM & 4:45-6:00PM; R 9:00-10:00AM; by Appt.
Teaching Assistant: Ashleigh Nebeker anebeker@sbcglobal.net
Course Objectives
Develop practical knowledge of the fundamental concepts and tools of statistical data analysis, including: sampling, collection and presentation of data, statistical estimation and hypothesis testing, correlation and simple linear regression modeling. Emphasis will be on understanding of concepts and interpretations of results rather than on memorization and manipulation of formulae. We will focus on business examples and applications.
Learning Objectives
At the end of this course you should be able to:
1. Create summaries of data in tables and graphs and interpret their information.
2. Interpret data analyses performed by others.
3 Understand the use of probability to formulate uncertainty and its application to risk analysis.
4. Make smart decisions involving estimation and testing in the face of uncertainty .
5. Understand simple forecasting techniques that exploit relationships among attributes.
Math 70-- Finite Mathematics. You will be asked to show your course transcript.
Bus 91L Ð Business Computer
Tools (WORD, EXCEL)
Very good verbal and written communication skills.
Commitment to serious work of at least 10 hours per week most weeks.!
Statistics for Managers, Levine, Stephen, Krehbiel and Berenson. Prentice Hall, 2001, 4th ed.
Evaluation:
HW- 22% for 13 homework assignments (drop two lowest grades of non-consecutive and other than #12, #13)
Quizzes 24% for 8 quizzes (drop the lowest other than #7or
#8)
Exams- 30% for three midterm exams
24% for the final exam (comprehensive).
Grade allocation: A: at least 90%; B: at least 75%; C: at least 60%; D: at least 50%.
Class participation will affect your grade. Exams are
closed-book and closed-notes. However, one/two-sided 8.5 x 11 pages (one sheet)
of formulae allowed for each exam.
Academic honesty is most important. Incidents of academic dishonesty,
such as cheating or plagiarism will be reported to the Judicial Office of the
University. See Senate Policy at http://www2.sjsu.edu/senate/S04-12.htm
ABOUT THIS COURSE
This course takes a practical approach to teaching basic tools of statistics and probability with emphasis towards business applications. The objective is to develop an intuitive understanding (rather than rote memorization) of basic concepts and tools of statistics. Lectures will include real-life examples.
I strongly encourage you to ask questions at all times.
. THERE ARE NO DUMB QUESTIONS! It is DUMB not to ask a question
The nature of the material in this course is that each lecture builds on concepts developed in earlier lectures. Therefore it is crucial to keep up with the reading and the HW in a timely manner. The purpose of the frequent HW and tests is to keep you up-to-date and pace you through the class.
Attached to this syllabus you should find a detailed schedule of classes. It lists the topics to be covered in every lecture and the corresponding pages from the text.
Advice: Read the material before every class: You will get more from class when you prepare than when you do not prepare.
Benefits : *Makes the class presentation/discussion interesting, lively and fun, for you and me.
*Facilitates a personalized experience from every lecture and
*Provides the best return on the time you will devote to this class.
*Makes it a lot easier to ask questions from the reading or that arise in class.
In class, I will assume that you have read the material in advance. When I introduce the material you will have a chance to ask questions. Usually students who read in advance are in the best position to ask questions. If you do not read in advance, class may seem very fast moving and at times confusing, so once again, take my advice and prepare for every class by reading the material indicated in the syllabus.
Finally, since you will end up reading the text a few times in the course of the semester, you might as well do things right and read the material before every class.
Homework: The due dates of 13 homework assignments are listed on the schedule of classes. Homework should be turned in at the beginning of class on the due date. Solutions to HW will be given out the day the assignment is due; therefore, I will not accept late homework.
Your HW will be graded.
Study groups It is highly recommended to study in groups (two to four persons) and discuss the material as well as the homework assignments. However, everyone should write up and turn in his or her own assignment.
The
To ensure
that every student, current and future, who takes courses in the
Eating
Eating
and drinking (except water) are prohibited in the
Cell
Phones
Students
will turn their cell phones off or put them on vibrate mode while in
class. They will not answer their
phones in class. Students whose
phones disrupt the course and do not stop when requested by the instructor will
be referred to the Judicial Affairs Officer of the University.
Computer
Use
In the
classroom, faculty allow students to use computers
only for class-related activities.
These include activities such as taking notes on the lecture underway,
following the lecture on Web-based PowerPoint slides that the instructor has
posted, and finding Web sites to which the instructor directs students at the
time of the lecture. Students who
use their computers for other activities or who abuse the equipment in any way,
at a minimum, will be asked to leave the class and will lose participation
points for the day, and, at a maximum, will be referred to the Judicial Affairs
Officer of the University for disrupting the course. (Such referral can lead to suspension
from the University.) Students are
urged to report to their instructors computer use that they regard as
inappropriate (i.e., used for activities that are not class related).
Academic
Honesty
Faculty will make every reasonable effort to foster honest academic conduct in their courses. They will secure examinations and their answers so that students cannot have prior access to them and proctor examinations to prevent students from copying or exchanging information. They will be on the alert for plagiarism. Students who are caught cheating will be reported to the Judicial Affairs Officer of the University, as prescribed by
Academic
Senate Policy S04-12 which can be found at
http://www2.sjsu.edu/senate/S04-12.pdf
and
http://www2.sjsu.edu/senate/S04-12.htm
8/31 Introduction:
Data & Sampling pp.
1-21. Tables &
Charts: Numerical Data pp. 50-62
Review of Excel see pp. 28-44
9/7 Categorical
Data pp.
68-72 Graphical excellence
pp. 80-84
Two-way tables and SimpsonÕs Paradox pp. 75-77 & Notes HW1
9/14 Numerical
Summaries: Location & Spread, Empirical Rule, Z scores, CV, RRR pp.104-124
Q1 Percentiles;
Box-plots: pp. 131-134 & Notes HW2
9/21 Bivariate data ÐCorrelation & XY plots pp. 65, 137-142;
Q2 Probability/
Basic Concepts pp.
158-165; HW3
9/28 Conditional
Probability &
Bayes Rule notes; pp. 168-178
Q3 Random
Variables 182-184;
The
Covariance and Risk Reduction -Portfolios, diversification pp. 188-195& Note HW4
10/5 HW5
Review Exam
I
Binomial probability model pp. 197-203
10/12 Decision
Analysis: Payoff, EMV, EOL, EVPI, CV, RRR, sample information pp.722-740
10/19 The
Normal Distribution
pp. 224-237 C.L.T; Sampling distribution of
m and P pp.
253-267.
Q4 Finite
pop. Correction PP 284-5 HW 6
10/26 Confidence Interval Est. of m
and P, pp. 282-298
HW7
Q5
11/2 Sample size requirement pp.
284-306
Q6 Application
of CI to accountin pp.307-310
Intro. to Hypothesis Testing of m pp.
332-337; HW8
11/9 Hypothesis
Testing of the mean pp. 338-353. HW9
11/16 Review & Exam Introduction
to Regression Analysis pp.
512-526 HW10
11/23 SLR (cont.) Estimation, ANOVA, and Inference pp. 527, 527-543 HW 11
Q7
11/30 Validating
regression assumptions via Residual Analysis. pp.528-532 HW 12
Q8 and
Forecasting pp. 628-532, 546-550
12/7 Exam
III and review HW 13
FINAL
EXAM Friday
12/17 12:15-14:30
8/26 Homework Schedule (tentative)
Hand in your HW at the beginning
of class on due dates.
All bold exercises should be
done using Excel.
HW 1 due 9/7: 1.3, 1.7, 1.13, 1.19, 1.21, 2.13, 2.15(skip a)
HW2 due 9/14: 2.27, 2.31, 2.34, 2.36, 2.40,
2.41, 2.42, 2.31, 2.48,
Simpson Paradox Ð Describe a situation where Simpson paradox may occur and argue what should be the correct analysis.
HW3 due 9/21: 2.62, 3.3, 3.9, 3.14 (use the empirical rule in part d) , 3.15(what is the Z
score of 9min.), 3.34, 3.35, 3.38, 3.72,3.73
HW4 due 9/28 2.22, 2.23, 3.44, 3.45, 4.1,4.3, 4.6, 4.7, 4.9, 4.11 .
HW5 due 10/5: 4.19, 4.21, 4.30, 4.31, 4.33, 4.35, 4.51, 5.1, 5.9, 5.11(Excel for g.- k.)
HW6 due 10/19: 5.19, 5.21, 5.53 (Calculate the Z score Z{X=30} for part a) 16.3, 16.5, 16.15(a-i), 16.17(a-i)
HW7 due 10/26: 6.2, 6.4, 6.5, 6.6, 6.9, 6.11,6.13.
HW8 due 11/2: 6.39, 6.45, 6.47, 6.49, 6.53, 7.1, 7.3, 7.5, 7.7, 7.9, 7.10, 7.15
HW9 due 11/9: 7.32, 7.33, 7.39, 7.45.
HW10 due 11/16 8.13, 8.14, 8.15, 8.17
Do Not turn in but be sure you understand and can answer: 8.1-8.10
HW11 due 11/23: 8.19, 8.22, 8.33, 8.27, 8.31, 8.43, 8.45, 8.51, 8.53.