College of Business, San Jose State University, California  

Fall Semester 2004

Business 90:   Business Statistics

Section 3 Code 45449  Lectures  T/R   10:30-11:45AM  BBC 202

 

Professor Miriam Donoho  donoho@email.sjsu.edu

Office: BT 765 Phone: 924-1346

Office Hours: T/R 9:30-10:15AM; T 13:00Ð13:45, 16:45-17:15 & by Appt.

Teaching Assistant:  Ashleigh Nebeker   anebeker@sbcglobal.net

 

Course Objectives

Develop practical knowledge of the fundamental concepts and tools of statistical data analysis, including: sampling, collection and presentation of data, statistical estimation and hypothesis testing, correlation and simple linear regression modeling. Emphasis will be on understanding of concepts and interpretations  of results rather than on memorization and manipulation of formulae. We will focus on business examples and applications.

 

Learning Objectives

At the end of this course you should be able to:

1.   Create summaries of data in tables and graphs and interpret their information.

2.  Interpret data analyses performed by others. 

3   Understand the use of probability to formulate uncertainty and its application to risk analysis.

4.   Make smart decisions involving estimation and testing in the face of uncertainty .

5.   Understand simple forecasting techniques that exploit relationships among attributes.

 

Prerequisites

Math 70-- Finite Mathematics. You will be asked to show your course transcript.

Bus 91L Ð Business Computer Tools (WORD, EXCEL)

Very good verbal and written communication skills.

Commitment to serious work of at least 10 hours per week most weeks.!

 

Text

Statistics for Managers, Levine, Stephen, Krehbiel and  Berenson. Prentice Hall, 2001, 4th ed.

 

Evaluation: 

HW-                22% for 13 homework assignments  (drop two lowest grades of non-consecutive and other than #12, #13)

Quizzes           24% for 6 quizzes (drop the lowest other than #7)

Exams-            30% for three midterm exams

                        24%  for the final exam (comprehensive).

Grade allocation:    A:  at least 90%;   B: at least 75%;   C: at least 60%;   D: at least 50%. 

Class participation will affect your grade. Exams are closed-book and closed-notes. However, one/two-sided 8.5 x 11 pages (one sheet) of formulae allowed for each exam.                 Academic honesty is most important. Incidents of academic dishonesty, such as cheating or plagiarism will be reported to the Judicial Office of the University.  See  Senate Policy at

 

http://www2.sjsu.edu/senate/S04-12.htm

ABOUT THIS COURSE

 

This course takes a practical approach to teaching basic tools of statistics and probability with emphasis towards business applications. The objective is to develop an intuitive understanding (rather than rote memorization) of basic concepts and tools of statistics.  Lectures will include real-life examples.

 

I strongly encourage you to ask questions at all times.

. THERE ARE NO DUMB QUESTIONS! It is DUMB not to ask a question

 

The nature of the material in this course is that each lecture builds on concepts developed in earlier lectures.  Therefore it is crucial to keep up with the reading and the HW in a timely manner.  The purpose of the frequent HW and tests is to keep you up-to-date and pace you through the class.

 

Attached to this syllabus you should find a detailed schedule of classes.  It lists the topics to be covered in every lecture and the corresponding pages from the text.

Advice: Read the material before every class: You will get more from class when you prepare than when you do not prepare.

Benefits : *Makes the class presentation/discussion interesting, lively and fun, for you and me.

 *Facilitates a personalized experience from every lecture and

 *Provides the best return on the time you will devote to this class. 

 *Makes it a lot easier to ask questions from the reading or that arise in class.

In class, I will assume that you have read the material in advance.  When I introduce the material you will have a chance to ask questions.  Usually students who read in advance are in the best position to ask questions.   If you do not read in advance, class may seem very fast moving and at times confusing, so once again, take my advice and prepare for every class by reading the material indicated in the syllabus.

Finally, since you will end up reading the text a few times in the course of the semester, you might as well do things right and read the material before every class.

 

Homework: The due dates of 13 homework assignments are listed on the schedule of classes. Homework should be turned in at the beginning of class on the due date. Solutions to HW will be given out the day the assignment is due; therefore, I will not accept late homework.  

Your HW will be graded.

Study groups It is highly recommended to study in groups (two to four persons) and discuss the material as well as the homework assignments. However, everyone should write up and turn in his or her own assignment.

 

 

College of Business  -  Mission

The College of Business is the institution of opportunity, providing innovative business education and applied research for the Silicon Valley region.

 

College of Business Policies and Procedures

 

To ensure that every student, current and future, who takes courses in the Boccardo Business Center has the opportunity to experience an environment that is safe, attractive, and otherwise conducive to learning, the College of Business at San JosŽ State has established the following policies:

 

Eating

Eating and drinking (except water) are prohibited in the Boccardo Business Center.  Students with food will be asked to leave the building.  Students who disrupt the course by eating and do not leave the building will be referred to the Judicial Affairs Officer of the University.

 

Cell Phones

Students will turn their cell phones off or put them on vibrate mode while in class.  They will not answer their phones in class.  Students whose phones disrupt the course and do not stop when requested by the instructor will be referred to the Judicial Affairs Officer of the University.

 

Computer Use

In the classroom, faculty allow students to use computers only for class-related activities.  These include activities such as taking notes on the lecture underway, following the lecture on Web-based PowerPoint slides that the instructor has posted, and finding Web sites to which the instructor directs students at the time of the lecture.  Students who use their computers for other activities or who abuse the equipment in any way, at a minimum, will be asked to leave the class and will lose participation points for the day, and, at a maximum, will be referred to the Judicial Affairs Officer of the University for disrupting the course.  (Such referral can lead to suspension from the University.)  Students are urged to report to their instructors computer use that they regard as inappropriate (i.e., used for activities that are not class related).

 

Academic Honesty

Faculty will make every reasonable effort to foster honest academic conduct in their courses.  They will secure examinations and their answers so that students cannot have prior access to them and proctor examinations to prevent students from copying or exchanging information.  They will be on the alert for plagiarism.  Students who are caught cheating will be reported to the Judicial Affairs Officer of the University, as prescribed by

Academic Senate Policy   S04-12  which can be found at

 

http://www2.sjsu.edu/senate/S04-12.pdf

and

http://www2.sjsu.edu/senate/S04-12.htm

 

 

 

 

Week of Tuesday

Tuesday  Lecture

Thursday  lecture

8/24

 

Introduction: data & sampling   pp. 2-21                                     Tables & charts: numerical data pp. 51-60

Review Excel pages 30-48

8/31

Univariate Numerical data

Tables & charts: pp. 50, 56-62

Univariate Categorical data 

Tables & charts:   pp. 68-72                HW1

9/7

Q1 Two way tables, conditional tables & SimpsonÕs paradox  pp.  75-77;

graphical excellence pp. 80-84

Univariate Numerical summaries; central values & variation - : The empirical rule. pp. 104-117 HW2

9/14

Univ. Numerical(cont.) Z scores; CV; %iles; boxplots:

pp.118-121, 131-134, Notes. 

Population summaries  pp. 134-136

Bivariate data ÐXY plots Correlation                                

pp. 65, 137-142    HW3

 

 

9/21

Q2  Probability/ basic concepts 

pp. 158-165

 

Conditional probability & BayesÕ rule                  

pp. 168-178 & Notes HW4

 

9/28

Random variables pp. 182-184 

Portfolios & diversification pp.188-195                        HW4                                                    

 

Q3 Binomial random variable  

pp.197-203     HW5                                                   

 

10/5

 EXAM I

Introduction to Decision Analysis (DA).

Set up; payoff and opportunity loss 

pp722-726       

 

10/12

DA  (cont.)Ð Criteria for decision making

EMV, EOL,EVPI, CV, & RRR

pp. 727-732

D.A.-,.  Sample Information 

pp.736-740 HW 6

Intro. to the Normal distribution pp.224-6

10/19

Q4  The Normal distribution (cont.)

pp.226- 237

C.L.T; Sampling distribution of m & P;

finite population. correction (fpc)

 pp. 253-267, 284-285 & Notes HW7

 

10/26

Confidence interval est. of m & p

pp. 282-298 Q5

 

Sample size for C.I;   pp.299-306  HW8 Application of CI to accounting

pp.307-310

 

11/2

Sample quiz on CI;  Review HW 9

EXAM II

 

11/9

Introduction to hypothesis testing &

2-sided Z test for m  pp. 332-337

HW 10 p-value and one tail tests                  

pp. 338-347

11/16

t-test for m  pp. 348-353

Pitfalls and issues in HT pp360-2

Q6 Regression: Intro, estimation & ANOVA  pp.512--526 HW11

11/23

Regression assumptions & inference

pp. 527,  539-543 HW12

THANKSGIVING                                                                                            

11/30

Q7 Validating regression assumptions via

Residual Analysis. pp.528-532

Examples HW13a

Forecasting pp.546-550      HW13b

 

12/7

                EXAM III

Review for Final Exam

 

 

 

12/14  9:45 AM   FINAL EXAM

 
 
 
 

 

 

 

8/26 Homework  Schedule (tentative)

 

Hand in your HW at the beginning of class on due dates.

All  bold exercises should be done using Excel.

 

HW 1 due  9/2:  1.3, 1.7, 1.13, 1.19, 1.21,  2.13,  2.15(skip a)

 

HW2  due  9/9:  2.27,  2.31, 2.34, 2.36, 2.40, 2.41, 2.42, 2.31, 2.48,

Simpson Paradox Ð Describe a situation where Simpson paradox may occur and argue what should be the correct analysis.

 

HW3 due  9/16: 2.62, 3.3, 3.9, 3.14 (use the empirical rule in part d) , 3.15(what is the Z

                        score of 9min.), 3.34, 3.35, 3.38, 3.72,3.73

 

HW4  due  9/25  2.22, 2.23, 3.44, 3.45, 4.1,4.3, 4.6, 4.7, 4.9, 4.11 .

 

HW5  due  9/30: 4.19,  4.21, 4.30, 4.31, 4.33, 4.35, 4.51, 5.1, 5.9, 5.11(Excel for g.- k.)

 

HW6  due  10/14: 5.19,  5.21, 5.53 (Calculate the Z score Z{X=30} for part a) 16.3, 16.5, 16.15(a-i), 16.17(a-i)

 

HW7 due 10/21:  6.2, 6.4, 6.5, 6.6, 6.9, 6.11,6.13.

 

HW8 due 10/28:  6.39, 6.45, 6.47, 6.49, 6.53, 7.1, 7.3, 7.5, 7.7, 7.9, 7.10, 7.15

 

HW9 due 11/2:    7.32, 7.33, 7.39, 7.45.

 

HW10 due 11/11  8.13, 8.14, 8.15, 8.17

Do Not turn in but be sure you understand and can answer: 8.1-8.10

 

HW11 due 11/18:  8.19, 8.22, 8.33, 8.27, 8.31, 8.43, 8.45, 8.51, 8.53.