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Course Objectives

Introduction to the fundamental concepts and tools of statistical data analysis. The emphasis will be on applications to Business. The aim is to develop an intuitive understanding as well as a practical knowledge of the material, going beyond memorization and manipulation of formulas.

At the end of this course you should be able to:

1.   Summarize data in an informative way.

2.  Interpret data analysis performed by others. 

3   Understand the use of probability to formulate uncertainty and its application to measure risk.

4.   Use tools of statistical inference that apply data to make smart decisions in face of uncertainty.

5.   Understand basic modeling techniques that exploit relationship among attributes to improve on decision making

Prerequisites

Math 70-- Finite Mathematics, show transcript.

Solid working knowledge of algebra.

Commitment to serious work of at least 10 hours per week.

Ability to use Excel or willingness to acquire it during the first two weeks of classes.

Units

This is a 3 unit class

Text

Statistics for Managers; David M. Levine, Mark L. Berenson and David Stephen. Prentice Hall, 1999, 2^nd  edition.

Grading

Point allocation: 

HW-18% for 12 Homework assignments  (lowest of first 10 dropped);

Quizzes-20% for 5 Quizzes (lowest of first 5 dropped); 

Exams-30% for 2 Mid-year exams; 32%  for the Final Exam (comprehensive).

Grade allocation:

Letter grade A:  at least 88%;   B: at least 75%, C: at least 60%, D: at least 50%.

Class participation will affect your grade.

Detailed Course Description

This course takes a practical approach to teaching basic tools of statistics and probability with emphasis towards business applications. The objective is to develop an intuitive understanding (rather than rote memorization) of basic concepts and tools of statistics.  Most lectures will include real-life examples.

  When introducing a new concept or tool, I will use the following format: illustrate via a simple example (often on a small artificial dataset);  discuss its uses (and misuses) in real life; give a precise and somewhat more formal definition; and, finally, highlight relations to previously studied tools/concepts.  I strongly encourage you to ask questions at all times.

This format will force the pace to be reasonable to allow for your questions.  

THERE ARE NO DUMB QUESTIONS!

  The nature of the material in this course is that each lecture builds on concepts developed in earlier lectures.  Therefore it is crucial to keep up with the reading and the HW in a timely manner.  In fact the purpose of the frequent HW and tests is to keep you up to date and pace you through the class.

  Attached to this syllabus you should find a detailed schedule of classes.  It lists the topics to be covered in every lecture and the corresponding pages from the text. Advice: read the material before every class it will prepare you for class.  This will make the class presentation/discussion interesting, lively and fun, to both you and me.  Preparing in advance is the only way to get a personalized experience from every lecture and to get the best return on the time you will devote to this class.  In class, I will assume that you have read the material in advance.  When I introduce the material you will have a chance to ask questions.  Usually students who read in advance are in the best position to ask questions.   If you do not read in advance, class may seem very fast moving and at times confusing, so once again, take my advice and prepare for every class by reading the material indicated in the syllabus.  Your cooperation will enable me to enrich the class material with real life examples of application rather than repeat the text.  Finally, since you will end up reading the text a few times in the course of the semester, you might as well do things right and read once the material before every class.

  Homework: The due dates of 13 weekly assignments are listed on the schedule of classes. Homework should be turned in at the beginning of class on the due date.

Solutions to HW will be given out the day the assignment is due therefore we will not accept late homework.   Your HW will be grades for personal feedback.  

It is highly recommended to form study groups (two to four persons) to discuss the material as well as the assignments.  However, everyone should write up their own work.

  Quizzes: There will be 6 quizzes on the dates published in the schedule. Quizzes will take place at the beginning of class time and will focus on the material taught in the previous couple of lectures, usually with emphasis on the last HW turned in.  The quiz questions will be similar to the text discussion and exercises and to the material presented in class.  The primary role of the quizzes is to give you and me feedback on how well you understand the material.

  Brief Course Description ( from Catalog)

In terms of theory and application: collection and presentation of data; measures of central

values and spread; probability as a measure of uncertainty; sampling and sampling

distribution of the sample average estimation via confidence intervals; hypothesis testing;

regression and correlation.

Course Outline

  The course material can be divided roughly into three parts. The first part focuses on Descriptive Statistics: it introduces graphical and numerical methods for summarizing and presenting data in a way that illustrates important features of the data.  Good description/summary of data highlights relevant phenomena, while poor presentation might obscure important patterns in the data. This descriptive part of the course is purely deterministic; there is no notion of uncertainty or probability. It moves fast because a great part of it is well known to you.  Here the challenge is to start using Excel.  Excel is essential for the last part of this course where hand computations would be too time consuming where your full attention should be devoted to interpretation of the meaning of the quantities calculated for you by Excel.  Therefore, master Excel during the first few weeks.

  In the second part of the course, we study making decisions under uncertainty and introduce the concepts of probability, estimation and hypothesis testing.  Probability is the language and tool we use to express uncertainty.  We introduce probability in an intuitive way and make it concrete rather than abstract, with real business life examples from risk management, quality control, etc. We then move on to study methods of statistical inference: estimation via confidence intervals, and hypothesis testing.  These are fundamental building blocks that one encounters in every situation where sample data are used to draw conclusions about a large population.

The last part of the course is dedicated to the study of modeling relations among attributes via regression analysis.  Again a basic model for exploiting associations to strengthen inference.  

Quiz and Test Schedule: Quizzes will be given at the beginning of class

Homework  Schedule: Hand in your HW at the beginning of class

HW 1   due  9/5: 1.5, 1.9, 1.13, 1.19, 1.22, 1.23, 1.48, 1.46, 2.11(not a), 2.12(not a

HW2    due  9/14: Excel 2.24, 2.27, 2.29,  2.43, 2.44, 2.51, 2.52, 2.66, 2.70, 2.72,  2.73, 2.75.

HW3    due  9/21: Excel  3.1, 3.5, 3.13, 3.14, 3.15, 3.47, 3.51, 4.3,4.5, 4.6, 4.11, 4.12 

HW4    due  9/28: 4.13, 4.19, 4.21, 4.28, 4.30, 4.31, 4.35, 4.38, 4.85, 4.86

HW5 due 10/5: 4.41, 4.45, 4.63, 4.64, 4.65, 4.67, 4.90, 4.91

HW6 due 10/12: 5.3,  5.14 (skip part (i)),  5.21(skip part (j))

HW 7a due 10/17: 6.2, 6.9, 6.10, 6.11, 6.68(skip part (e), 6.71

HW 7b due 10/19: 6.31, 6.35, 6.36, 6.38, 6.39, 6.72

HW 8   due 10/26  6.40, 6.41, 6.43, 6.48, 6.49, 6.51, 6.53, 7.2 through 7.5,  7.8, 7.9           

HW 9   due 10/31: 7.10(a,c,d), 7.16, 7.34, 7.35, 7.45, 7.71,7.72

HW10a due 11/7:  8.6 -8.10, 8.13, 8.14, 8.17, 8.22, 8.30, 8.45, 8.47, 8.75 - 8.79

[[[8.53, 8.56, 8.58 may need to be postponed to HW10b]]]

HW10b due 11/9  8.67, 8.68, 8.72, 8.73, 8.85

HW11  due 11/21  

HW12  due 11/30 

HW13 due 12/7

Homework  Schedule: Hand in your HW at the beginning of class  

Quiz and Test Schedule: Quizzes will be given at the beginning of class

Quiz 1:            September 7

Quiz 2:            September 19

Quiz 3:            October   3

Test 1              October 10

Quiz 4:            October 18

Quiz 5:            November 2

Test 2             November 14

Quiz 6:            December 5

Finals Schedule-