MANAGERIAL DECISION ANALYSIS (Business 260)

San Jose State University M.B.A. Program

Tuesdays in BBC 205, Code: 45513

Three major analytical tool sets for managers are developed, including: decision trees, forecasting, and linear programming. Also covered are simulation, project management, queuing, and game theory. The goal of the course is to develop quantitative skills that can be applied to business functions such as marketing, finance, and management. A statistics class is a prerequisite.

Instructor: G. Kent Webb, Email: webb_k@cob.sjsu.edu Phone: 408 924-1348.

Office: BT-253. Office Hours: Tuesday and Thursday, 3:15 to 5:45 pm.

Recommended Text: Quantitative Decision Making with Spreadsheet Applications, Lapin and Whisler, seventh edition.

Requirements: Two exams, seven case studies, a paper or project, and participation in evaluation of presentations.

Grading	Points
Two exams (100 points each)	200
Seven case studies (5 each)	35
Paper or project	100
Total	335

Guidelines for Course Requirements: exams are based on the assigned textbook problems, example problems, cases and some readings that will be posted online. Be able to write a short answer summary of the readings.

The paper or project can be a case study based on personal experience, an application related to work, or a standard research paper. It can be done individually or in a group. A written proposal of a paragraph or two written in memo form is due by 11/7. The final report should describe the problem, the data used, and the results with supporting analysis and graphics. Alternatively, the project can be presented to the class.

Expected grade distribution: 95 – 100, A; 90 – 94, A-; 87 – 89, B+; 82 – 86, B; 80 – 81, B-.

B260 Schedule

Meeting	Chapter	Topic and Example Problems. Links marked PP are PowerPoint summaries of the chapters. Text versions are in the Chapter column. Numbered problems are from the book.
8/29		Introduction.
9/5	1,2,3,4 5	Chapter 1,2,3,4 review of probability and statistics. Chapter 3 (14, 15, 18, 35, 39, 40). Chapter 4 (12, 20, 21, 29, 30, 34). Review of Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing. Introduction to Chapter 5, Decision-Making Concepts (PP), Mind Tools Example, Wikipedia,
9/12	5	Decision-Making Concepts, continued. Example problem. (1,4,15,16,21,22,23,24, C5-1). Decision Tree Primer (PDF), Case 1 distributed
9/19	6	Decision Theory and Risk (PP). (1,2,3,7,11,12,13,15,21) Case 2 and Case 3 distributed. Black-Scholes Article (PDF). Binomial Trees Article (PDF). IT Risk Assesment Article (PDF). Hand in case 1. Chapter 18, Simulation (PP)
9/26	7	Forecasting (PP). (1,3,5,7,12,13,20,21) Case 4 distributed. Hand in case 2.
10/3		Forecasting continued. Chapter 5 Review Questions Hand in case 3. How to load and use regression in Excel, Interpreting Excel Regression, Interpreting Regression.
10/10		Hand in case 4. Review for exam. Answers to textbook problems for chapters: 5, 6, 7. Answers to Decision Tree Primer Problems from 9/12 (has some extra chapters also)
10/17		EXAM 1 (Chapters: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7)
10/24	8	Linear Programming (PP). (2,3,4,5,7,9,10,15,17,18) Case 5 distributed Chapter 8 Review Problems.
10/31		Short class on Halloween. We can talk about your project status. Linear Programming continued.
11/7		Linear Programming continued. Project Proposals due.
11/14	9	Linear programming continued (PP). (2,4,5,9,13,18) Chapter 9 Review Problems. Case 6 distributed. Hand in case 5.
11/21	14	Chapter 14: Project Management (PP). (4, 5, 8) Case 7 distributed. Optional Presentations. Hand in case 6.
11/28	17	Chapter 17: Waiting Lines (PP) (2, 8, 9, 10) Optional Presentations. Hand in case 7.
12/5		Optional Presentations. Review for final. Sample exam questions.
12/12		Exam II (Chapters 8, 9, 14, 17), Projects due.