MANAGERIAL DECISION ANALYSIS (Business 260)

San Jose State University M.B.A. Program

BBC 021 at 6 pm on Monday, Code 48323

 

Three major analytical tool sets for managers are developed, including: decision trees, forecasting, and linear programming.  Also covered are simulation, project management, queuing, and game theory.   The goal of the course is to develop quantitative skills that can be applied to business functions such as marketing, finance, and management.  A statistics class is a prerequisite.

 

Instructor: G. Kent Webb, Email:  webb_k@cob.sjsu.edu   Phone: 408 924-1348.

Office: BT-253.  Office hours:  Monday 5 to 6 pm,  Thursday 2:45 to 5:45 pm

 

Recommended Text: Quantitative Decision Making with Spreadsheet Applications, Lapin and Whisler, seventh edition.  

 

 

B260 Schedule 

Meeting

Chapter  

Topic and Example Problems.  ** Indicates material that will be distributed in class.  Links marked PP are PowerPoint summaries of the chapters.  Text versions are in the Chapter column.  Numbered problems are from the book.

8/27

1,2,3,4

 

Chapter 1,2,3,4 review of probability and statistics**.  Chapter 3 (14, 15, 18, 35, 39, 40).  Chapter 4 (12, 20, 21, 29, 30, 34).  Review of Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing**.

9/3

 

Labor Day Holiday

9/10

5

Decision-Making Concepts (PP), Mind Tools Example,  Wikipedia,   Example problem.  (1,4,15,16,21,22,23,24, C5-1)**.  Decision Tree Primer (PDF) (This is just for review). Case 1 distributed** 

9/17

6

Decision Theory and Risk (PP).  (1,2,3,7,11,12,13,15,21)**  Case 2 distributed**.   Risk Article (doc)   Black-Scholes Article (PDF).  Payoff Goal Article . Hand in case 1.   

9/24

18,  7**

Chapter 18 Simulation    Chapter 7 Forecasting (PP).  (1,3,5,7,12,13,20,21)**  Case 3 and Case 4 distributed.    Hand in case 2. 

10/1

 

Forecasting continued.  How to load and use regression in Excel, Interpreting Excel Regression, Interpreting Regression.   Hand in case 3.

10/8

 

Review for exam.  Chapter 5 Review Questions Answers to Review Questions.  Answers to textbook problems for chapters:  5,  6,  7.  Answers to Decision Tree Primer Problems from 9/10 (has some extra chapters also).  Hand in case 4.

10/15

 

EXAM 1 (Chapters: 5, 6, 7 and some assigned readings) 

10/22

8

Linear Programming (PP).  (2,3,4,5,7,9,10,15,17,18)**    Case 5 distributed ** Chapter 8 Review Problems. 

10/29

 9

Linear programming continued (PP).  (1,2,4,5,7,9,13,14,1518,C9-3)**,   Project Proposals due. 

11/5

 

Lucas Lecture, Meet in Barret Ballroom on the second floor of the Student Union building (same building as the bookstore).  Carl Buardino, CEO of Silicon Valley Leadership Group will speak on “Turning Silicon Valley into Solar Valley: How Silicon Valley Continues to Reinvent Itself”

11/12

 

Veteran’s Day Holiday

11/19

 

Linear Programming continued. Chapter 9 Review Problems.   Case 6 distributed**.  Hand in case 5.

11/26

14

Chapter 14:  Project Management (PP).  Example Problem (PP), (4, 5, 8, and review problems)**   Case 7 distributed**.   Hand in case 6.   Optional Presentations

12/3

17**

Chapter 17:  Waiting Lines (PP)  (2, 8, 9, 10)  Optional Presentations.  Hand in case 7.

12/10

 

Optional Presentations.  Review for final.  Sample exam questions.

12/17

 

 

Exam II (Chapters 8, 9, 14), Projects due.  Exam stars at 5:15, but you can start at 6 also.

 

 

 

Requirements: Two exams, seven case studies, a paper or project, and participation in evaluation of presentations.

 

Grading

Points

Two exams (100 points each)

200

Seven case studies (5 each)

  35

Paper or project

100

Total

335

 

Guidelines for Course Requirements: exams are based on the assigned textbook problems, example problems, cases and some readings that will be posted online.  Be able to write a short answer summary of the readings.

 

The paper or project can be a case study based on personal experience, an application related to work, or a standard research paper. It can be done individually or in a group.  A written proposal of a paragraph or two written in memo form is due by 10/29. The final report should describe the problem, the data used, and the results with supporting analysis and graphics. Alternatively, the project can be presented to the class.

 

Expected grade distribution:  95 – 100, A; 90 – 94, A-; 87 – 89, B+; 82 – 86, B; 80 – 81, B-.