MANAGERIAL DECISION ANALYSIS (Business 260)

San Jose State University M.B.A. Program

BBC 022 at 6 pm on Thursday, Code 22263

 

Three major analytical tool sets for managers are developed, including: decision trees, forecasting, and linear programming.  Also covered are simulation, project management, queuing, and game theory.   The goal of the course is to develop quantitative skills that can be applied to business functions such as marketing, finance, and management.  A statistics class is a prerequisite.

 

Instructor: G. Kent Webb, Email:  webb_k@cob.sjsu.edu   Phone: 408 924-1348.

Office: BT-253.  Office hours:  Thursday 2:45 to 5:45 pm

 

Optional Text: Quantitative Decision Making with Spreadsheet Applications, Lapin and Whisler, seventh edition.  

 

 

B260 Schedule 

Meeting

Chapter  

Topic and Example Problems.  ** Indicates material that will be distributed in class.  Links marked PP are PowerPoint summaries of the chapters.  Text versions are in the Chapter column.  Numbered problems are from the book.

1/24

1,2,3,4

 

Chapter 1,2,3,4 review of probability and statistics**.  Chapter 3 (14, 15, 18, 35, 39, 40).  Chapter 4 (12, 20, 21, 29, 30, 34).  Review of Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing**.

1/31

5

Decision-Making Concepts (PP), Mind Tools Example,  Wikipedia,   Example problem.  (1,4,15,16,21,22,23,24, C5-1)**.  Decision Tree Primer (PDF) (This is just for review).  Payoff Goal Article    Case 1 distributed** 

2/7

6

Decision Theory and Risk (PP).  (1,2,3,7,11,12,13,15,21)**  Case 2 distributed**.  Risk Management (PDF),  Risk Article (doc)   Black-Scholes Article (PDF).   These three articles are for the exam essay.. Hand in case 1.   

2/14

18,  7**

Chapter 18 Simulation    Chapter 7 Forecasting (PP).  (1,3,5,7,12,13,20,21)**  Case 3 and Case 4 distributed.    Hand in case 2. 

2/21

 

Lucas Lecture, Richard Stone from Salient Capital on Investing in Global Environment in  Martin Luther King Library Room #225

2/28

7

Forecasting continued.  How to load and use regression in Excel, Interpreting Excel Regression, Interpreting Regression.   Hand in case 3.

Review for exam.  Chapter 5 Review Questions Answers to Review Questions.  Answers to textbook problems for chapters:  5,  6,  7.  Answers to Decision Tree Primer Problems from 1/31 (has some extra chapters also). 

3/6

 

EXAM 1 (Chapters: 5, 6, 7 and some assigned readings)   Hand in case 4.

3/13

8

Linear Programming (PP).  (2,3,4,5,7,9,10,15,17,18)**    Case 5 distributed ** Chapter 8 Review Problems. 

3/20

 9

Linear programming continued (PP).  (1,2,4,5,7,9,13,14,1518,C9-3)**,    

3/27

 

Spring Break

4/3

 9

Linear Programming continued. Chapter 9 Review Problems.   Case 6 distributed**.  Hand in case 5.

4/10

14

Chapter 14:  Project Management (PP).  Example Problem (PP), (4, 5, 8, and review problems)**   Case 7 distributed**.   Hand in case 6.  

4/17

17**

Chapter 17:  Waiting Lines (PP)  (2, 8, 9, 10)   Hand in case 7.  Create presentation schedule.

4/24

 

Project Proposals due.  Optional Presentations.  One essay question on the final exam will be an on-line evaluation of class presentations. 

5/1

 

Optional Presentations.  Review for final.  Sample exam questions.

5/8

 

Optional Presentations

5/15

 

 

Exam II (Chapters 8, 9, 14, 17), Projects due.  Exam stars at 5:15, but you can start at 6 also.  Submit one essay question based on class presentations by on-line survey.

 

 

 

Requirements: Two exams, seven case studies, a paper or project, and participation in evaluation of presentations.

 

Grading

Points

Two exams (100 points each)

200

Seven case studies (5 each)

  35

Paper or project

100

Total

335

 

Guidelines for Course Requirements: exams are based on the assigned textbook problems, example problems, cases and some readings that will be posted online.  Be able to write a short answer summary of the readings.

 

The paper or project can be a case study based on personal experience, an application related to work, or a standard research paper. It can be done individually or in a group.  A written proposal of a paragraph or two written in memo form is due by 4/24. The final report should describe the problem, the data used, and the results with supporting analysis and graphics. Alternatively, the project can be presented to the class.

 

Expected grade distribution:  95 – 100, A; 90 – 94, A-; 87 – 89, B+; 82 – 86, B; 80 – 81, B-.