MANAGERIAL DECISION ANALYSIS (Business 260)
BBC 022 at
Three
major analytical tool sets for managers are developed, including: decision
trees, forecasting, and linear programming.
Also covered are simulation, project management, queuing, and game
theory. The goal of the course is to
develop quantitative skills that can be applied to business functions such as
marketing, finance, and management. A
statistics class is a prerequisite.
Instructor: G. Kent Webb, Email: webb_k@cob.sjsu.edu Phone:
Office:
BT-253. Office hours: Thursday 2:45 to 5:45 pm
Optional
Text: Quantitative Decision Making with
Spreadsheet Applications, Lapin and Whisler, seventh
edition.
B260
Schedule
|
Meeting |
Chapter |
Topic and Example Problems. ** Indicates material that will be distributed in class. Links marked PP are PowerPoint summaries of the chapters. Text versions are in the Chapter column. Numbered problems are from the book. |
|
1/24 |
1,2,3,4 |
Chapter
1,2,3,4 review of probability and statistics**. Chapter 3 (14,
15, 18, 35, 39, 40). Chapter 4 (12,
20, 21, 29, 30, 34). Review of Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis
Testing**. |
|
1/31 |
Decision-Making Concepts (PP), Mind Tools Example, Wikipedia, Example problem. (1,4,15,16,21,22,23,24,
C5-1)**. Decision
Tree Primer (PDF) (This is just for review). Payoff Goal Article Case 1 distributed** |
|
|
2/7 |
Decision Theory and Risk (PP). (1,2,3,7,11,12,13,15,21)**
Case 2 distributed**. Risk
Management (PDF),
Risk Article (doc) Black-Scholes Article (PDF). These three articles are for the exam
essay.. Hand in case
1. |
|
|
2/14 |
18, 7** |
Chapter 18
Simulation Chapter
7 Forecasting (PP). (1,3,5,7,12,13,20,21)** Case 3 and Case 4
distributed. Hand in case
2. |
|
2/21 |
|
Lucas
Lecture, Richard Stone from Salient Capital on Investing in Global
Environment in Martin Luther King Library Room #225 |
|
2/28 |
7 |
Forecasting continued. How
to load and use regression in Excel, Interpreting
Excel Regression, Interpreting
Regression. Hand in case 3. Review for exam. Chapter 5 Review Questions Answers
to Review Questions. Answers
to textbook problems for chapters: 5, 6, 7. Answers to
Decision Tree Primer Problems from 1/31 (has some extra chapters
also). |
|
3/6 |
|
EXAM 1 (Chapters: 5, 6, 7 and
some assigned readings) Hand in
case 4. |
|
3/13 |
Linear Programming (PP).
(2,3,4,5,7,9,10,15,17,18)** Case 5 distributed ** Chapter 8 Review Problems. |
|
|
3/20 |
Linear programming
continued (PP). (1,2,4,5,7,9,13,14,1518,C9-3)**,
|
|
|
3/27 |
|
Spring Break |
|
4/3 |
9 |
Linear Programming
continued. Chapter
9 Review Problems. Case 6
distributed**.
Hand in case 5. |
|
4/10 |
Chapter 14: Project Management (PP). Example Problem
(PP), (4, 5,
8, and review problems)** Case 7 distributed**. Hand in case
6. |
|
|
4/17 |
17** |
Chapter 17: Waiting Lines (PP) (2, 8, 9,
10) Hand
in case 7. Create presentation schedule. |
|
4/24 |
|
Project
Proposals due. Optional Presentations. One essay question on the final exam will
be an on-line evaluation of class presentations. |
|
5/1 |
|
Optional
Presentations. Review for
final. Sample
exam questions. |
|
5/8 |
|
Optional
Presentations |
|
5/15 |
|
Exam II (Chapters 8, 9, 14, 17),
Projects due.
Exam stars at 5:15,
but you can start at 6 also. Submit
one essay question based on class presentations by on-line survey. |
Requirements:
Two exams, seven case studies, a paper or project, and participation in
evaluation of presentations.
|
Grading |
Points |
|
Two exams (100 points each) |
200 |
|
Seven case studies (5 each) |
35 |
|
Paper or project |
100 |
|
Total |
335 |
Guidelines
for Course Requirements: exams are based on the assigned textbook problems,
example problems, cases and some readings that will be posted online. Be able to write a short answer summary of
the readings.
The
paper or project can be a case study based on personal experience, an
application related to work, or a standard research paper. It can be done
individually or in a group. A written
proposal of a paragraph or two written in memo form is due by 4/24. The final
report should describe the problem, the data used, and the results with
supporting analysis and graphics. Alternatively, the project can be presented
to the class.
Expected
grade distribution: 95 – 100, A; 90 –
94, A-; 87 – 89, B+; 82 – 86, B; 80 – 81, B-.