Managerial Decision Analysis (Business 260)

San Jose State University Off-Campus M.B.A. Program, Tuesday and Saturday

Three major analytical tool sets for managers are developed, including: decision trees, forecasting, and linear programming. Also covered are simulation, project management, queuing, and game theory. The goal of the course is to develop quantitative skills that can be applied to business functions such as marketing, finance, and accounting, thereby providing an analytical integration for the M.B.A. program.

Instructor: Kent Webb, Phone: 924-1348. Email: webb_k@cob.sjsu.edu

Optional Text: Quantitative Decision Making, Lapin and Whisler, seventh edition, Duxbury. This is a recommended only; all materials for the course are available on this web site

Requirements: Two exams, seven cases and a project.

Meeting	Chapter Notes	** Indicates that this material will be handed out in class. Numbers in parenthesis are problems from the text that will be covered in class. PP in parenthesis are PowerPoint slides of the chapter information.
3/4 Tues	1,2,3,4,** 5	Chapter 3 (14, 15, 18, 35, 39, 40). Chapter 4 (12, 20, 21, 29, 30, 34). Review of Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing**. Decision-Making Concepts (Ch5 PP), Mind Tools Example, Wikipedia, Example problem. Chapter 5(1,4,15,16,21,22,23,24, C5-1)**. Decision Tree Primer (PDF), Case 1 distributed**, Chapter 5 Review Questions, Answer to Review Questions.
3/8 Sat 9 to 1 pm	6	Decision Theory and Risk (Ch6 PP). (1,2,3,7,11,12,13,15,21)** Case 2** distributed. Risk Management (PDF), Risk Article (word). Black-Scholes Article (PDF). Hand in case 1. Chapter 18, Simulation (PP) , Case 3**
3/11 Tues	7**	Forecasting (Ch PP). (1,3,5,7,12,13,20,21)** Case 4 distributed** Hand in case 2. How to load and use regression in Excel, Interpreting Excel Regression, Interpreting Regression.
3/18 Tues.	7	Forecasting continued, Hand in case 3. Review for exam. Example. Answers to textbook problems for chapters: 5, 6, 7. Answers to Decision Tree Primer Problems
3/22 Sat, 9 to 1 pm		EXAM 1 (Chapters: 5, 6, 7) Hand in case 4.
3/25 Tues	8	Linear Programming (Ch8 PP). (2,3,4,5,7,9,10,15,17,18)** Case 5 distributed**, Chapter 8 Review Problems.
4/1 Tues	9**	Linear programming continued (Ch9 PP). (1,2,4,5,7,9,13,14,1518,C9-3)**, Chapter 9 Review Problems. Case 6 distributed** Hand in case 5.
4/8 Tues	14,	Chapter 14: Project Management (Ch14 PP). (4, 5, 8)**, Case 7 distributed** Practice Problem Hand in case 6. Optional presentations.
4/15 Tues	17**	Chapter 17: Waiting Lines (Ch17 PP). Hand in case 7. Optional presentations. Review for exam.
4/22 Tues		Exam 2 (Chapters 8, 9, 14). Project due

Guidelines for Course Requirements:

Grading:	Points
Two exams (100 points each)	200
Project	100
Seven case studies (5 points each)	35
Total	335

Exams are based on the assigned textbook problems. Sample exam problems distributed throughout the course further illustrate the type of problems that will appear on the exam. The paper or project can be a case study based on personal experience, an application related to work, or a standard research paper. An application of Microsoft Excel is encouraged. The paper or project can be done individually or in a group. Projects can be presented to class on 4/8 or 4/15, 15 minutes for presentations on 44/15. Material in additional material can also be submitted. Alternatively, the paper can be submitted as a written report on 4/22.

Expected grade distribution: 95 – 100, A; 90 – 94, A-; 87 – 89, B+; 82 – 86, B; 80 – 81, B-.