MANAGERIAL DECISION ANALYSIS (Business 260)
San Jose State
University M.B.A. Program
BBC 022,
Class Number 21157, Wednesday
Three
major analytical tool sets for managers are developed, including: decision
analysis, forecasting, and linear programming.
Also covered are simulation, project management, queuing, and game
theory. The goal of the course is to
develop quantitative skills that can be applied to business functions such as
marketing, finance, and management. A
statistics class is a prerequisite.
Instructor: G. Kent Webb, Email: g.webb@sjsu.edu Phone: 408 924-1348.
Office:
BT-253.
Optional
Text: Quantitative Decision Making with
Spreadsheet Applications, Lapin and Whisler, seventh
edition. All course material for the
class is available on the class website.
No book has been ordered for the class, but there are links on my main
page for buying used or electronic versions if desired. Email me if you have questions.
B260
Schedule
|
Meeting |
Chapter |
Topic
and Example Problems. * Indicates
material that normally we would distribute, but given the budget problems
students are encouraged to make their own copies for class. ** Indicates material that will be
distributed in class. Links marked PP
are PowerPoint summaries of the chapters.
Text versions are in the Chapter column. Numbered problems are from the book. |
|
1/25 |
1,2,3,4 |
Chapter
1,2,3,4 review of probability and statistics. Chapter 3 (14,
15, 18, 35, 39, 40). Chapter 4 (12,
20, 21, 29, 30, 34). Review of Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing. |
|
2/1 |
Online
Class |
|
|
2/8 |
Decision-Making Concepts (PP), Wikipedia, Example problem. (1,4,15,16,21,22,23,24,
C5-1)*. Decision
Tree Primer (PDF) (This is just for review). Payoff Goal Article Case 1 distributed** |
|
|
2/15 |
Decision Theory and Risk (PP). (1,2,3,7,11,12,13,15,21)*
Case 2
distributed**. Risk Management (PDF), Risk Article
(doc) Black-Scholes Article (PDF). These three articles are for the exam
essay. Hand in case 1. |
|
|
2/22 |
18, 7* |
Chapter 18 Simulation Chapter 7
Forecasting (PP). (1,3,5,7,12,13,20,21)* Case 3** and Case 4** distributed.
Hand in case 2. Discuss
written problem assignment one based on decision analysis. Good day to bring in computer for computer
demo. |
|
2/29 |
|
Forecasting continued. How
to load and use regression in Excel, Interpreting
Excel Regression, Another
example of interpreting regression
Hand in case 3. Hand in written problem
1. In-class computer demo. |
|
3/7 |
7 |
Review for exam. Chapter 5 Review Questions Answers
to Review Questions. Answers
to textbook problems for chapters: 5, 6, 7. Answers to
Decision Tree Primer Problems from 2/7 (has some extra chapters
also). Another computer demo for excel. Hand in case
4. |
|
3/14 |
|
EXAM 1 (Chapters: 5, 6, 7 and some assigned
readings). |
|
3/21 |
Linear Programming (PP).
(2,3,4,5,7,9,10,15,17,18)* Case 5 distributed ** Chapter 8 Review Problems. |
|
|
3/28 |
Spring Break |
|
|
4/4 |
Linear programming
continued (PP). (1,2,4,5,7,9,13,14,1518,C9-3)*,
|
|
|
4/11 |
9 |
Linear Programming
continued. Chapter
9 Review Problems. Case 6 distributed**. Hand in case 5. Discuss written problem
assignment two based on linear programming. |
|
4/18 |
Chapter 14:
Project Management (PP). (4, 5, 8)* , Example Problem Case 7 distributed**. Hand in case
6. Hand in written problem 2. |
|
|
4/25 |
17* |
Project Proposals due.
Chapter
17: Waiting Lines (PP) (2, 8, 9,
10) Hand
in case 7. |
|
5/2 |
|
Optional
Project Presentations. One essay question on the final exam will be an
on-line evaluation of class presentations Review
for final. Sample
exam questions. |
|
5/9 |
|
Optional
Project Presentations. |
|
5/16 |
|
Study/conference
day. No class. |
|
5/23 |
|
Final Exam. On Chapters 8, 9, 14, 17. Exam formally starts at 5:15, but a 6 pm
start is ok. Project due. |
Requirements:
Two exams, seven case studies, two written problems, a paper or project, and
participation in evaluation of presentations.
|
Grading |
Points |
|
Two exams (100 points each) |
200 |
|
Seven review case studies (5 each) |
35 |
|
Two written problems
(10 each) |
20 |
|
Paper or project |
100 |
|
Total |
355 |
Guidelines
for Course Requirements: exams are based on the assigned textbook problems,
example problems, cases and some readings that will be posted online. Be able to write a short answer summary of the
readings. The two written problems are
similar to a minor project and can form the basis for the class project. They should be about the level of detail of a
case or review problem from the class, written using hypothetical data, with a
solution provided. Submit hard copy.
The
paper or project can be a case study based on personal experience, an
application related to work, or a standard research paper. It can be done
individually or in a group. A written
proposal of a paragraph or two written in memo form is due by 4/25. The final
report should describe the problem, the data used, and the results with
supporting analysis and graphics. Alternatively, the project can be presented
to the class.
Expected
grade distribution: 95 – 100, A; 90 –
94, A-; 87 – 89, B+; 82 – 86, B; 80 – 81, B-.